All predictions are wrong

There was a thought provoking article on the peak oil issue over at Scitizen the other day. If you have never heard of Peak Oil, it is the argument that the constantly increasing production of oil will someday reach a peak, after which point production will begin to steadily decrease. Many individual countries have experienced this phenomenon (the US being one), and the world peak is predicted to happen any time between 2012 and 2050.

A peak is a problem because demand for energy (which today means oil) is projected to increase monotonically without peaking. Increasing demand with decreasing supply leads to increasing prices and likely public outrage and government over-reaction. Chaos is probable and complete social disaster possible. Not good.

I have no facts or figures to support any of the predictions, but I do have two points to add to the Peak Oil debate and any other predictions of the future.

1. Forecasts have a hard time accounting for market forces. Small increases in the price of oil will drive innovative entrepeneurs to exploit technology in ways we cannot dream of, adjusting both the supply and demand sides of the equation in unknown ways (e.g. 2008 Prius sales). Therefore, forecasts are most certainly wrong.
   
2. Forecasts do a good job forcing us to think about the future. Nearly every individual forecast is wrong. Nearly every individual forecast is possible. It is important for us each to understand the inputs and implications of predictions so that we can decide if we are willing to contribute to, or fight against, that particular possible future.
   

Read the Scitizen article and maybe a couple others that are linked on that page. Think about the issue and how you will respond, if at all. Will you buy oil futures? Start biking to work? Do not let hysteria overwhelm you, just learn, think, and act.